The administration claims that its strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s military capacity. But as long as Tehran can pressure oil flows and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington faces a more difficult test: how much economic pain can the United States absorb before it turns toward de-escalation? The central question is not simply how many more sites the United States can hit or how many more commanders Iran can lose. It is whether military pressure can achieve political results without a ground war, or whether the economic blowback to the United States will force Washington toward a deal first.