Soybeans at the Heart of Codependency: Food Security and Market Loss

Soybean supply is shifting away from the U.S. (Photo: Volodymyr Herasymov)

In 2024, China exported $525 billion worth of goods to the United States and imported $144 billion in return. Soybeans were a leading U.S. export to China, totaling $13 billion. They accounted for 24% of China’s total soybean imports and 52% of all U.S. soybean exports. With China as the world’s largest soybean importer and the U.S. as the second-largest soybean producer, soybeans have become a central pressure point in renewed U.S.-China trade tensions.

In early March, China imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. soybean imports following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese goods. An additional 34% tariff on all U.S. imports took effect on April 10, bringing the total duty on soybeans arriving after that date to 44%. According to Reuters and Kpler data, more than 40 cargoes—carrying nearly 3 million tons—are expected to arrive in April-May and will be subject to either the 10% or 44% tariff depending on their arrival date. A trader told Reuters, “We don't expect cancellations or any major issues with these cargoes since a government company has made these purchases. But they can in no way sell U.S. beans with the duty. They will have to absorb the duty.”

With Brazil also expecting a bumper harvest, Chinese importers have turned aggressively to the South American supplier, securing at least 40 cargoes in the second week of April alone. This buying spree reflects Beijing’s effort to secure alternatives as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate.

This strategy is not new. During the 2018–2019 trade war, China sharply reduced soybean purchases from the U.S., and American farmers never fully recovered their lost market share. At the time, one-third of U.S. soybean exports went to China. After tariffs took effect, the U.S. permanently lost around 9% of that market. In response, China ramped up investment in Brazil’s agricultural infrastructure—including ports, roads, and rail—to solidify its access to non-U.S. supply chains.

American soybean producers are now bracing for another round of losses. Without sustained international demand, domestic oversupply threatens to drive down prices and further strain the farm economy. China, which accounts for 60% of global soybean imports, brought in a record 105 million tons in 2024. Its demand has grown alongside a rising middle class and shifting diets that require more meat and dairy. Soybean meal, used in animal feed, is essential to China’s pork and poultry industries. That scale of demand cannot easily be replaced in the U.S., where the domestic protein system is not built around soy.

A recent study by the University of North Dakota underscored the economic risks: if China were to impose a 20% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans, North Dakota’s soybean exports could fall by nearly 60%, costing local farmers an estimated $639.9 million. Soybean exports support roughly 231,400 jobs across the United States, while soybean meal exports support another 41,400, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. These exports sustain employment not just on farms, but across manufacturing, services, trade, and transportation sectors.

Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Magnolia, Kentucky, and president of the American Soybean Association, expressed growing frustration. A longtime Trump supporter who voted for him three times, Ragland told reporters, “We want [Trump] to get the best deal possible. If that means tariffs for a short term, fine. But we can't be in a tariff war for years on end because we'll die before then.”

For China, the soybean issue is not only economic. Ensuring food security remains a top priority for Beijing, especially given the historical memory of famines and their links to social unrest and regime instability. China must feed nearly 20% of the global population with less than 10% of the world’s arable land. Soybeans are critical to this goal, particularly as nearly 70% of domestic soybean consumption is tied to animal feed. Since the original trade war, Beijing has pushed to diversify its supply sources and reduce reliance on U.S. imports. Yet a potential shortfall could emerge in the fourth quarter—when Brazil’s export season winds down and China traditionally turns to fresh U.S. harvests. If tensions persist, Chinese importers may have to balance political directives with practical supply needs.

For U.S. farmers, the implications extend beyond short-term losses. Another wave of tariffs could solidify a long-term shift in global soybean flows, deepening Brazil’s dominance. For China, the strategic imperative remains clear: diversify, invest, and shield food supply from external risks. But in a volatile global market, full decoupling may not be feasible—especially if weather or logistics disrupt Brazil’s output. The coming months will test the resilience of both countries’ strategies.