U.S.-South Korea Joint Military Exercise Prompts Threats from North Korea

Thursday, April 17: The semiannual joint “Freedom Flag” exercise between the U.S. and South Korea is set to begin today amidst tensions on the Korean Peninsula. 

Following a joint military exercise on Tuesday in which the U.S. flew long-range B-1B bombers over South Korea, the North Korean Defense Ministry sent out a statement arguing that the exercise had created an “open threat to the security of [North Korea] and a grave provocation that raises the military tension in the region to an extreme[ly] dangerous level.” Subsequently, the Ministry warned of unspecified retaliation. 

U.S. and South Korean fighter jets, including the B-1B bombers, fly in a joint exercise over South Korea (Photo Credit: BBC via South Korean Air Force)

This unspecified retaliation following Tuesday’s drill may include the test launch of ballistic missiles, as is often the case following joint military exercises. While none have happened yet, the “Freedom Flag” exercise may spur this action. 

These threats from the North Korean government, and its leader Kim Jong Un, exist within the context of a tumultuous relationship with President Donald Trump and unresolved conflict with South Korea. Last month, during a different joint exercise with the U.S., South Korean fighter jets accidentally bombed a civilian area in Pocheon, a town next to the border with North Korea. At the time, the response from North Korea was that the U.S. and South Korea “will have to pay dearly for their stupid and reckless war drills.” Both this month and last month’s joint drills, including the critical mistake from South Korean pilots so close to the border, have cast into doubt the future relationship between Trump and Kim.

Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, reports have swirled about how he has reached out to Kim in order to reestablish diplomatic relations, with no public responses to his outreach. Trump seems keen to appeal to Kim, perhaps hoping to evoke the two leaders’ relationship from 2019 which led to their meeting at the demilitarized Zone—albeit without any policy changes as a result. The most important policy issue to discuss was nuclear weapons, which Trump alluded to when he entered office for a second time, simultaneously calling North Korea a “nuclear power.” Reported attempts at contact may have included diplomatic outreach involving discussions related to nuclear weapons. Trump has reestablished a “Special Envoy for Sensitive Issues,” including North Korea, signaling dedication to the cause.

President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un meet in the Demilitarized Zone in 2019. (Photo Credit: CNN)

Kim, on the other hand, is theorized to be trying to prove that he “isn't who he was in 2017 - that he's militarily stronger, that he's politically stronger, and that, if they ever get back to that point, it's going to be a very different negotiation.” Part of this has to do with North Korea’s new relationship with Russia, which has provided food and fuel to the country in exchange for military support in its war with Ukraine. Prior goals of policy trades—lessening of U.S. sanctions for compromises on nuclear activity—are less relevant considering this heightened cooperation.

Further, the relationship between South Korea and the U.S., while strengthened due to the long-standing military relationship, has been strained by potential 25% tariffs levied against South Korea by the U.S., South Korea’s domestic impeachment turmoil, and the presence of Chinese military equipment in a “Provisional Measures Zone” between China and South Korea. 

All of these factors from each country complicate future dynamics and throw into question whether North Korea will retaliate, as indicated, and what U.S. and South Korea’s responses (whether jointly or independently) will be.