Belgrade Protests Fuel Serbia’s EU Membership Debate
Protests against populist President Aleksandar Vucic and his government, in downtown Belgrade, Serbia, Saturday, March 15, 2025. (Source: AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
Serbia’s anti-corruption movement ramped up in November of last year after a tragic incident when a concrete structure at a train station collapsed, resulting in the deaths of 15 people. This catastrophe intensified calls for accountability and demanded reforms from the populist government led by Aleksandar Vučić.
The protests not only questioned the government's legitimacy, but also casted doubt on Serbia's prospects for its membership in the European Union (EU). The movement reached a peak on March 15 when a protest in Belgrade attracted over 100,000 participants, illustrating the depth of public frustration and the potential ramifications for Serbia's political future. The EU's response to this unrest will play a crucial role in determining Serbia's path toward EU candidacy.
Protesters march past the Parliament building in downtown Belgrade, Serbia, Saturday, March 15, 2025. (Source: AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
Serbia's journey toward EU membership began in 2009 with its formal application, followed by its recognition as an official candidate in 2012. Despite this progress, Serbia struggled to meet the EU’s rigorous financial and governance criteria, particularly in the areas of human rights and governance. EU candidacy is vital for Serbia as it promises economic growth and political stability. Moreover, the EU’s influence offers Serbia a framework to enhance democracy and uphold human rights, which are essential components of its integration strategy.
Multiple factors drive the ongoing protests, such as corruption and a lack of government accountability, which led to eroded public trust and sparked widespread calls for change. Protesters also demand democratic reforms and an independent judiciary, underscoring concerns about the rule of law and fair governance. Additionally, socio-economic frustrations and dissatisfaction with living conditions significantly fuel the unrest, highlighting the urgent need to improve living standards and provide equitable opportunities for all citizens.
Serbia's bid for EU membership faces considerable obstacles. The EU insists on significant governance and rule of law reforms which requires earnest efforts to combat corruption. Critics argue that the EU's hesitance to apply pressure on President Vučić emboldens the Serbian government, allowing it to strengthen ties with Russia and China. Though economic incentives have been offered, they lack effective enforcement mechanisms, rendering them ineffective. The protests unmistakably demonstrate public support for substantial change and increased accountability. At some point, the EU must respond decisively, as failure to do so could bolster the current regime. On the other hand, stronger measures, advocated by some protesters, could catalyze democratic reforms.
Police in riot gear walk down a street during the rally led by university students in Belgrade, Serbia, Saturday, March 15, 2025. (Source: AP Photo/Marko Drobnjakovic)
The protests will have both immediate and long-term effects on Serbia’s EU membership aspirations. European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen is scheduled to meet with president Vučić this week. However, as reflected by the past, it is unlikely the EU will come out against the Serbian government. In the short-term, delays in negotiations and heightened scrutiny from EU officials assessing Serbia's reform commitments can be anticipated. Long-term, however, the unrest may lead to political reshuffling and potential leadership changes, as sustained public pressure could drive significant reforms aligning Serbia more closely with EU values. The EU’s response will be followed closely as it must balance its strategic interests, given Serbia's role as the region's largest economy, with its commitment to democratic principles.