China Ramps up Efforts to Tackle its Population Crisis
China’s large and long-growing population is set to shrink for the first time in six decades. Qilai Shen | Credit: Bloomberg
On Tuesday October 10, 2023, Chinese state media announced the CCP’s plan to conduct a nationwide survey to “monitor China’s population developmental changes and provide a basis for the Communist party… to formulate… population related policies.” The survey comes as China begins to see its long-growing population begin to shrink for the first time in six decades.
China shrank by roughly 850,000 people in 2022, falling to 1.411 billion. As a result, India surpassed China as the most populous nation in the world this past April, a title which China held since the UN began collecting population data in 1950.
This survey would not be the first time Chinese authorities have enacted pro-natalist policies to counteract falling birth rates. In 2016, the CCP officially ended the infamous one-child policy enacted by Mao Zedong. The policy was replaced by a two-child per family policy, then subsequently replaced by a three-child Policy in 2021 and an end to all fines relating to excessive childbirths. According to The Guardian, “Beijing is urgently trying an array of measures to lift the country’s birthrate including financial incentives and boosting childcare facilities.”
A shrinking population can have severe internal and external consequences for a nation. The Brookings Institute on Foreign Policy outlines how “the demographic transition in China will constitute a major constraint on the growth of Chinese power. A working-age population that peaked in 2011 at more than 900 million will have declined by nearly a quarter, to some 700 million, by mid-century.
These workers will have to provide by then for nearly 500 million Chinese aged 60 and over, compared with 200 million today.” This demographic shift will constitute an increase in 300 million retirees relying on the social spending paid for by the taxes of a much smaller workforce, straining China’s dependency ratio. Beijing will in turn have to either increase taxes or decrease social spending to maintain China’s current quality of life.
The UN projects China’s population to fall from 1.411 billion today to likely 767 million by 2100 or as low as 488 million by 2100 in a worst case scenario. China is not alone in having a shrinking population, many European nations as well as China’s neighbors Japan and South Korea also have falling birth rates. However, no nation has ever had its population decrease as fast as China’s is predicted to. China's demographic shift and its unparalleled scale have prompted some analysts to posit whether China will “grow old before it gets rich.”
According to Brookings, “factoring in NATO and key East Asian allies, the Western alliance system already has a billion people today — 70% of China’s total… Thus, not long after 2050, this Western alliance network will collectively approach China in total numbers of citizens. The West will likely remain significantly wealthier on a per capita basis as well.” Brookings economist David Dollar postulates that China “might overtake the United States in gross domestic product in coming decades — only to have America regain the claim to the world’s biggest economy toward the end of the century” due to China’s population loss.
Pew Research Center | Credit: UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects: The 2022 Revision
The stakes are clear and the rapidly increasing occurrence of Chinese-related initiatives associated with population and birth rates indicate Beijing takes the threat seriously. The Guardian remarks how “population development has often been linked to the strength and rejuvenation of the country in state media” so it is likely China will continue to exhaust resources until some solution to the demographic crisis can be found. Maintaining a stable population demographic is crucial if China hopes to achieve its China 2049 goals.