IR INSIDER

Powered by IR Society at NYU

IR Insider is a production of NYU's International Relations Society. Our goal is to explain and discuss issues in IR in an engaging and thought-provoking fashion. We are written by students, for students, about issues students care about. 

Republicans Maintain Arizona House Seat for Now

Republicans on Tuesday maintained their congressional seat in Arizona’s eighth district. The Republican seat, which voted for Trump in 2016 by more than 20 points, came into play for Democrats when Hiral Tipirneni ran a serious campaign. Debbie Lesko, the Republican candidate, won by just five points.

Credit:  New York Times

The district, which is 87.9% white and has not voted for a House Democrat since 2010, was seen as an uphill battle for Democrats from the beginning. Even so, Lesko significantly outspent Tipirneni. Although Tipirneni lost, the margin is significant.

In a district that voted overwhelmingly for Trump, according to the same New York Times article, it shows a significant shift among voters. Could it be a sign of wavering support for President Trump? Although it is hard to draw that conclusion, the shift should be a warning to Republicans.

Credit:  New York Times

In nearly every precinct, votes shifted toward Democrats compared to the votes for Trump in the 2016 election. In 2016, there was no Democrat on the ballot in the district. Could this point to signs of a “Blue Wave” in the 2018 midterm elections? It’s hard to say.


Now that this special election is over, we look forward to next Tuesday when there will be a plethora of special elections including in Florida and Virginia.